“Global Climate Models: Any Progress on Prediction?” with Michael Previdi
Originally presented 7 Feb 2015
Abstract:
Numerical computer models are the primary tools used to forecast future changes in Earth’s climate that may occur as a result of increasing amounts of man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These global climate models (GCMs) are based on fundamental physical principles, and they include representations of the various components of the Earth system, specifically the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, cryosphere (various forms of ice and snow), and biosphere. In this presentation, I will discuss how GCMs are developed, evaluated with observations, and used to predict and project the future evolution of climate in response to rising greenhouse gas amounts. Current issues at the forefront of climate modeling research will be highlighted, including the inability of most GCMs to correctly simulate the recent “hiatus” in global warming. Finally, simple climate models, combined with output from more sophisticated , will be used to examine the sources of uncertainty in future climate predictions and projections, including physical process uncertainty, weather and climate noise, and uncertainty in future human behavior.
Mike Previdi is a Lamont Assistant Research Professor whose fields of interest include the hydrological cycle, climate dynamics, and climate change. His research interests fall under the broad heading of working to gain better understandings of the dynamic and thermodynamic controls of the atmospheric water cycle in present-day and future climates. He is also exploring atmosphere/ocean effects of annular mode, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability.
During the afternoon, participants will break into small groups to examine several simple classroom-oriented climate models, then share with the whole group. These are based on the CMIP5 Global Climate Change Viewer Model.
“CMIP5 projections of future climate change: uncertainty and robust features” questions
“CMIP5 projections of future climate change: uncertainty and robust features” answers
Dr. Previdi’s Prior Earth2Class Workshop: How Good Are Global Climate Models? (March 2009)
Link to Dr. Previdi’s slideshow: https://www.dropbox.com/s/zmyws4g1qkkatwv/Previdi_E2C_2015.pptx?dl=0
Useful Educational Resources
Major Climate Change Reports
| National Climate Assessment (NCA) | 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) |
| AMS Statement on Climate Change | US Global Climate Change Research Program |
Educational Climate Models and Activities
Additional Selected Resources
SAMPLE LESSON PLANS AND SLIDESHOWS
PERTINENT NEXT GENERATION SCIENCE STANDARDS
ESS1.B: Earth and the Solar System
Cyclical changes in the shape of Earth’s orbit around the sun, together with changes in the tilt of the planet’s axis of rotation, both occurring over hundreds of thousands of years, have altered the intensity and distribution of sunlight falling on the earth. These phenomena cause a cycle of ice ages and other gradual climate changes.(secondary to HS-ESS2-4)
ESS2.A: Earth Materials and Systems
ESS2.D: Weather and Climate
- Weather and climate are influenced by interactions involving sunlight, the ocean, the atmosphere, ice, landforms, and living things. These interactions vary with latitude, altitude, and local and regional geography, all of which can affect oceanic and atmospheric flow patterns. (MS-ESS2-6
- Because these patterns are so complex, weather can only be predicted probabilistically.(MS-ESS2-5)
- The ocean exerts a major influence on weather and climate by absorbing energy from the sun, releasing it over time, and globally redistributing it through ocean currents. (MS-ESS2-6)
- The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space. (HS-ESS2-4)
- Changes in the atmosphere due to human activity have increased carbon dioxide concentrations and thus affect climate. (HS-ESS2-6),(HS-ESS2-4)
ESS3.D: Global Climate Change
- Human activities, such as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature (global warming). Reducing the level of climate change and reducing human vulnerability to whatever climate changes do occur depend on the understanding of climate science, engineering capabilities, and other kinds of knowledge, such as understanding of human behavior and on applying that knowledge wisely in decisions and activities. (MS-ESS3-5)
- Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts. (HS-ESS3-5)